More on Decision Making & Game Shows
From the NYTimes:
And Behind Door #1, A Fatal Flaw
Basically when you are presented 3 blind choices (where one offers a reward) and you randomly pick one (door A) — but are then shown one of the duds (door C) now leaving only 2 choices (door A or B) and are given a chance to rethink your selection — you should ALWAYS change your pick (door B).
Nice.
And I was just going to post this link in the comments here. . .
Some people get confused and think the same principle applies to Deal or No Deal (clearly I have a problem), but this is not the case:
http://austinzoning.typepad.com/austincontrarian/2007/07/lets-make-a-dea.html
http://austinzoning.typepad.com/austincontrarian/2008/01/bayes-theorem-o.html