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More on Decision Making & Game Shows

From the NYTimes:

And Behind Door #1, A Fatal Flaw

Basically when you are presented 3 blind choices (where one offers a reward) and you randomly pick one (door A) — but are then shown one of the duds (door C) now leaving only 2 choices (door A or B) and are given a chance to rethink your selection — you should ALWAYS change your pick (door B).

2 Comments

  1. Frank wrote:

    Nice.

    Thursday, April 10, 2008 at 1:48 pm | Permalink
  2. Dan wrote:

    And I was just going to post this link in the comments here. . .

    Some people get confused and think the same principle applies to Deal or No Deal (clearly I have a problem), but this is not the case:

    http://austinzoning.typepad.com/austincontrarian/2007/07/lets-make-a-dea.html
    http://austinzoning.typepad.com/austincontrarian/2008/01/bayes-theorem-o.html

    Thursday, April 10, 2008 at 3:53 pm | Permalink

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